TSSOM pays for Space Elevator
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lengould
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« on: December 20, 2004, 09:51:59 AM »

This concept proposes the installation of a group of TSSOM (Tension Stabilized Steerable Orbiting Mirror)'s using the SE and financed by energy utilities (existing public or private).  The concept is develop installations consisting of a 2.75 km dia. (5.94 sq km) array of solar cells in a cloudless location, eg. Arizona, Salton Sea? etc.  Then the Space Elevator is used to loft 4 x 2.75 km dia. Mylar Mirrors into eliptical GEO orbits above and to the east of the site.  Each mirror weight 110 tons + a 70 ton mass (brought in from the asteroid belt?).  Each mirror can increase to power output of the PV array by 75%, mostly evenings and night.  (More complex arrangements possible).  

See details at http://www.ecologen.com/page_TSSOM2-75.html.

Bottom line is, "the budget for orbiting a group of four of these 110 ton mirrors is $440 million, which pays back to investors quite acceptably once the collector arrays are constructed. At eg $6 billion capital cost of the space elevator, it only requires construction of say 15 of these 290 MW groups worldwide to pay off entirely the space elevator."

Once proven, this system would have an unlimited market worldwide.
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bdunbar
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« Reply #1 on: December 20, 2004, 10:57:13 PM »

Quote from: lengould
This concept proposes the installation of a group of TSSOM (Tension Stabilized Steerable Orbiting Mirror)'s using the SE and financed by energy utilities (existing public or private).


That might be the entire problem with the concept.  Energy companies are (must be) conservative and want to rely on proven energy generation.  Getting a utility to sign up for this venture and then to commit to using the output to deliver to the grid .... that will take some selling.  I skimmed the article and didn't see any input from anyone _in_ the energy industry.

Last year an idea was floated in article format that proposed using SPS to smooth out peak demands in the existing system - that might be a way to poke the camel's nose under the tent, so to speak.
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lengould
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« Reply #2 on: December 20, 2004, 11:12:28 PM »

Agreed, energy utilities are very conservative until a system is proven.  I have absolutely no doubt that the first system will need to be paid for by eg. DOE or other (Cdn?) govt. agencies.  But I think the concept holds up well enough that it should be worth pursuing, don't you?  Two biggest benefits are a) cost-justifies SE construction  b) provides a market in space for the "bic disposable" concept of elevator lifters.  (One trip up, then sell them to the TSSOM company at full value for use as steering winches.)  Eliminates wasteful time / expense of bringing them back down again, yet still enables profitable SE operation.  Everybody benefits.

I mean, if Dominion and Excelon etc are willing to spend (given some assistance :<) 3+ billion to construct new GenIII nuclear reactors...  those new design reactors are no more proven than this, and a lot more complex and risky i think.

Also, this is a LOT simpler, cheaper and less risky than the SPS satellite system.  Note from the article,

"Another interesting comparison to this proposal is the SunTower5 (SSP) design currently being promoted and supported by NASA’s Glen Research Centre and presented by James Powell, John Paniaguia, and George Maise to the 51st International Astronautical Congress at Rio de Janeiro, Brazil in Oct. 2000.  They propose a 15,700 ton satellite in GEO orbit comprised of 1,200 MWe photovoltaic cells and 1,500 tons of superconducting distribution, along with a 1,200 MW microwave transmitter and a 90% efficient microwave receiver earth station connected to submit power to an HVAC grid.  In their estimates, they propose that this entire assembly might be set up for $3,000 / net kw, but even presuming a non-profit space elevator delivering loads to GEO at $100/kg, that budget still leaves them over $2 billion short just to pay for $2,800 / kw photovoltaic manufacturing, and with no allowance then for the 1,500 tons of superconductor with cryogenic refrigeration, or the microwave equipment, control, or earth station systems."

TSSOM article proposes paying SE $1,000/kg to GEO.
« Last Edit: December 20, 2004, 11:46:44 PM by lengould » Logged
bdunbar
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« Reply #3 on: December 21, 2004, 07:42:55 AM »

Quote from: lengould
Agreed, energy utilities are very conservative until a system is proven.  I have absolutely no doubt that the first system will need to be paid for by eg. DOE or other (Cdn?) govt. agencies.  But I think the concept holds up well enough that it should be worth pursuing, don't you?

Yes, I do.
Quote from: lengould
I mean, if Dominion and Excelon etc are willing to spend (given some assistance :<) 3+ billion to construct new GenIII nuclear reactors...  those new design reactors are no more proven than this, and a lot more complex and risky i think.

From the utility executive's point of view, you're talking about an extention on business-as-usual.  A new reactor design is just that, but they've been _doing_ nuclear power for their entire lives, and they have an extensive knowledge base around the concept, infrastructure and so-on.  

Plus the guys who _do_ nuclear power will be wary of this - a Kw generated by solar is a Kw they don't make and that's money out of their budget.  This is 'strange' and new and my point, I think, stands.  You'll need to be a mighty good salesman to pitch it to them.
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lengould
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« Reply #4 on: December 21, 2004, 02:08:38 PM »

Quote
You'll need to be a mighty good salesman to pitch it to them.


Agreed again.  So why pitch it to them?  First one in gets the gravey, let them follow later.
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jallison
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« Reply #5 on: December 21, 2004, 03:39:39 PM »

Why don't we just do it?

If the energy companies are so conservative, then they don't deserve the big risky gains.  The numbers you guys are throwing around will be in the sort of range we will have when we get a space elevator, and the most significant part of this operation will be in stuff that a private space elevator company will have experience in, not the on the ground distribution stuff that they are skilled in.  

So how exactly are they proposing doing this?  PV cells with beamed power to Arizona or wherever?  PV is like 3% efficient or something like that right?  And worth more than its weight in gold if you get the best stuff.  Why not just use micron thick mirrors that are hundreds of miles wide and concentrate them to beam back the power?  Also, how do you deal with shadows?  Whoever's hemisphere you build this over isn't going to appreciate having a big shadow in the sky and occasional eclipses.
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lengould
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« Reply #6 on: December 21, 2004, 04:23:19 PM »

Quote from: jallison
the most significant part of this operation will be in stuff that a private space elevator company will have experience in, not the on the ground distribution stuff that they are skilled in.  


Exactly right.

Quote

PV cells with beamed power to Arizona or wherever?  PV is like 3% efficient or something like that right?  And worth more than its weight in gold if you get the best stuff.  Why not just use micron thick mirrors that are hundreds of miles wide and concentrate them to beam back the power?  Also, how do you deal with shadows?  Whoever's hemisphere you build this over isn't going to appreciate having a big shadow in the sky and occasional eclipses.


Actually current PV exposed to an illumination rate average of "1 sun" produces (per RWE Schott Solar Gmb) 9054 net kwhr/yr with 960 sq. ft. photocells uncooled at Arizona, or just under 10 kwhr useable / sq ft / yr.  They will pretty much guarantee that.  The concept here is just to put mirrors into orbit to reflect additional sunlight onto a dense array of PV on the ground, each mirror adding about ".75 sun" of production, or 7.5 kwhr/sq ft/yr.  

No shadows ever go onto the earth, because the mirror orbits are eliptical and the plane of orbit is tilted enough that the mirror's shadow passes above or below the earth when the mirror is passing between the sun and the earth.  The first part of the article covers the orbit in more detail.

The cost of the PV array is included in the calculations at $2,800 / kw.  That might be optomistic for this year, but see eg. Spheral Solar at http://www.spheralsolar.com or Sliver Solar in Australia.  It looks like they're about to alter what we "know this year" fairly dramatically.  The mirrors still make sense until the cost of direct PV drops to about 1/10th of that, eg. 5% of present prices.  Then there's land use on the ground etc.
« Last Edit: December 21, 2004, 04:28:33 PM by lengould » Logged
lengould
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« Reply #7 on: December 21, 2004, 04:37:08 PM »

Another interesting feature of this system is that the PV arrays on the ground will work much better given some cooling, in fact probably required.  Turns out that the cooling system "should" (i still have to do the details) be an excellent way to desalinate water by evaporation.  Can anyone think of a place that has access to salt water and need fresh water?
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Bob Munck
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« Reply #8 on: December 21, 2004, 07:39:20 PM »

It concerns me that this guy thinks that a mirror in geosynchronous orbit (24-hour circular orbit in the plane of the Equator) is shadowed by the Earth once a day.  In fact, satellites in GSO are in direct sunlight for all but a few hours each day for a couple of days twice each year, at the solstices.  He goes through this whole elaborate "Gould orbit" thing to solve a problem that doesn't exist.

Also, there probably wouldn't be a problem with taking up a valuable telecom satellite slot.  I'm sure that one or more such sats would be glad to hitch on to one of the big mirror platforms, use its station-keeping, local PV power supply, and structure to support a much larger system than any of the current sats.

I haven't read the whole paper yet, so maybe he's got the rest of it right.  I'm dubious that this approach is cheaper than the traditional PV-in-orbit, microwave-beaming approach to SPS.
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lengould
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« Reply #9 on: December 21, 2004, 08:18:35 PM »

Quote from: Bob Munck
It concerns me that this guy thinks that a mirror in geosynchronous orbit (24-hour circular orbit in the plane of the Equator) is shadowed by the Earth once a day.  In fact, satellites in GSO are in direct sunlight for all but a few hours each day for a couple of days twice each year, at the solstices.  He goes through this whole elaborate "Gould orbit" thing to solve a problem that doesn't exist.

The purpose of the alternative orbit is to gain added geosynchronous slots.  Being able to design the orbit to avoid shadow is a minor, and agreed, perhaps not even significant, advantage.  Being shadowed occasionally by latitude 15 rather than latitude 0 IS a questionable advantage.

Quote

Also, there probably wouldn't be a problem with taking up a valuable telecom satellite slot.  I'm sure that one or more such sats would be glad to hitch on to one of the big mirror platforms, use its station-keeping, local PV power supply, and structure to support a much larger system than any of the current sats.

I believe you'll find that statement not to be true for two reasons.  First, the only safe place to attach a significant single additional mass to the mirror without unbalancing it's rotation is at the top mass.  Problem is, from this position the earth is always behind the mirror, which won't allow passage of most electromagnetic waves.  Second, in the volume envisioned (e.g. a fast install of 60 mirrors, then continual additions sufficient to intercept plans such as this from the homepage of Arch Coal of St. Louis, "Over the next 20 years, electricity demand in the United States will increase by 45%, according to estimates by the US Department of Energy."  They are obviously hoping to make it all coal.  If instead it were all mirror-suplemented PV, even the auxiliary orbit slots will run out unless the units are seriously scaled up.  Then there's the rest of the world.

Quote

I haven't read the whole paper yet, so maybe he's got the rest of it right.  I'm dubious that this approach is cheaper than the traditional PV-in-orbit, microwave-beaming approach to SPS.

If you look at today 2:12AM post, again:

Also, this is a LOT simpler, cheaper and less risky than the SPS satellite system. Note from the article,

"Another interesting comparison to this proposal is the SunTower5 (SSP) design currently being promoted and supported by NASA’s Glen Research Centre and presented by James Powell, John Paniaguia, and George Maise to the 51st International Astronautical Congress at Rio de Janeiro, Brazil in Oct. 2000. They propose a 15,700 ton satellite in GEO orbit comprised of 1,200 MWe photovoltaic cells and 1,500 tons of superconducting distribution, along with a 1,200 MW microwave transmitter and a 90% efficient microwave receiver earth station connected to submit power to an HVAC grid. In their estimates, they propose that this entire assembly might be set up for $3,000 / net kw, but even presuming a non-profit space elevator delivering loads to GEO at $100/kg, that budget still leaves them over $2 billion short just to pay for $2,800 / kw photovoltaic manufacturing, and with no allowance then for the 1,500 tons of superconductor with cryogenic refrigeration, or the microwave equipment, control, or earth station systems."

TSSOM article proposes paying SE $1,000/kg to GEO."

Or see http://www.newworlds.com/reports/PUR-14.PDF If that doesn't scare you about irrational thought .....
« Last Edit: December 21, 2004, 08:51:07 PM by lengould » Logged
lengould
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« Reply #10 on: December 22, 2004, 10:34:04 AM »

Regarding previous note on cooling / desalination, this http://www.e4engineering.com/story.aspx?nid=rg4sn&id=219188 just came out today on E4Engineering.  A professor at U Florida has developed a much lower cost method of desalinating water by low-temperature evaporation.  Looks like this system would be perfect for operation on the waste heat of cooling the PV arrays out in Arizona or California.

Quote from: E4Engineering Article

"We think this technology could run off excess heat from utility plants and produce millions of gallons each day," said Klausner, lead author of an article on the system that appears in the current issue of the Journal of Energy Resources Technology.

"Employing a major modification to distillation, Klausner's technology relies on a physical process known as mass diffusion, rather than heat, to evaporate salt water. Pumps move salt water through a heater and spray it into the top of a diffusion tower, which is a column packed with a polyethylene matrix that creates a large surface area for the water to flow across as it falls. Other pumps at the bottom of the tower blow warm, dry air up the column in the opposite direction of the flowing water. As the trickling salt water meets the warm dry air, evaporation occurs. Blowers push the now-saturated air into a condenser, the first stage in a process that forces the moisture to condense as fresh water. Klausner said the key feature of his system is that it can tap warmed water plants have used to cool their machines to heat the salt water intended for desalination, turning a waste product into a useful one.


Change the "Pumps move salt water through a heater" to "Pumps move salt water through a PV array cooling loop" and we have an ideal system.  He suggests operation at $2.50 per 1,000 gallons, compared with $10 per thousand gallons for conventional distillation and $3 per thousand gallons for reverse osmosis.
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lengould
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« Reply #11 on: December 22, 2004, 07:20:26 PM »

Quote from: Bob Munck
It concerns me that this guy thinks that a mirror in geosynchronous orbit (24-hour circular orbit in the plane of the Equator) is shadowed by the Earth once a day.  In fact, satellites in GSO are in direct sunlight for all but a few hours each day for a couple of days twice each year, at the solstices.  He goes through this whole elaborate "Gould orbit" thing to solve a problem that doesn't exist.

Also, there probably wouldn't be a problem with taking up a valuable telecom satellite slot.  I'm sure that one or more such sats would be glad to hitch on to one of the big mirror platforms, use its station-keeping, local PV power supply, and structure to support a much larger system than any of the current sats.


Ok Bob.  I gotta eat some crow on this.  I've revised the website to eliminate any discussion of shadow, agreed it's not even worth mentioning.  I also added a revised option to the design which moves the "stabilizing weight" out in front of the mirror so a communications package attached to it could still function properly if it can survive the added reflected light. (about 95% additional).  I still think that, even with this strategy allowing one mirror to occupy each slot in the Clark orbit, if it's exploited properly more satellites than slots available, but perhaps delayed some.  Also has the added disadvantage that in this configuration, the mass of the stabilizing weight needs to be about as much larger than the total weight of the system as the reverse configuration's one is smaller, eg. might change from 70 tons to 150 tons.  That added mass to GEO might entirely negate any benefits.

Still doesn't change the need for a cheap (eg <$1000/kg to GEO) heavy lifter.
« Last Edit: December 22, 2004, 08:08:13 PM by lengould » Logged
lengould
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« Reply #12 on: December 23, 2004, 08:35:21 AM »

Another fascinating item of data is that the overall output efficiency of standard silicon crystal photovoltaic cells actually INCREASES with increased light input, provided the temperature is kept constant.

from http://www.amonix.com/Tech_Papers/Temp_Depend.htm

"It is apparent from review of the AMNX 1805 data that concentrator applications of the same cell would produce power more efficiently.  For a 250X concentrator application, the cell would be approximately 20% more efficient than one-sun applications.  Due to the fact that concentrator systems operate at high Vm levels (also high Voc)"

So far I havn't considered any concentrations up to 250x, but it's encouraging to know that at least there should be no problem increasing light input to the minimum 4x required to make photovoltaic competetive with coal.

Also  eg. BP Solar declares their crystaline cells to have a Temperature co-efficient of power of -(0.5±0.05)%/°C, with rated power output given at a Normal Operating Temperature of 47 +-2 deg C. http://www.mrsolar.com/pdf/bp/BP3160.pdf .  Tests in Australia indicate that typical photovoltaic arrays can provide to thermal collectors between .8 and .9 kwhr/hr / sq meter / sun.   It then becomes a tradoff to decide how hot to run the photovoltaic array, with higher temperatures decreasing the efficiency of electrical output but increasing the efficiency and reducing the cost of desalination of water.

This concept just keeps getting better and better the more detailed I get it. Neat.
« Last Edit: December 23, 2004, 09:12:28 AM by lengould » Logged
Bob Munck
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« Reply #13 on: December 23, 2004, 07:08:10 PM »

I've been trying to work out how you think you're going to distort the mirror to focus sunlight across 36,000 km into a spot on Earth approximately the same size as the mirror.  I don't think it can be done, and beyond that I'm not sure you realize that a flat mirror won't do the job.

The Sun is not a point source; it's about 0.5° across as seen from the Earth (or GEO).  An observer on the Earth will only be able to "see" a tiny fraction of the Sun's area reflected in the mirror, and will therefore receive only that tiny fraction of the energy from the Sun reflected from the mirror. To reflect a "full sun" to the Earth's surface, your mirror would have to have the same apparent diameter as the Sun (and, in a huge coincidence, the Moon).  Since it's about 1/10th as far away as the Moon, your mirror would have to be 1/10th the diameter of the Moon to do what you want it to do.

If you are planning to focus by distorting the mirror, HOW?
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lengould
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« Reply #14 on: December 23, 2004, 07:54:50 PM »

Bob. I know that a flat mirror causes reflected sunlight to diverge some over long distances due to the appararent disc diameter of the sun, but that's simply one of the "derating" issues taken into account when calculating the eventual power output.  (I think) it's not near as bad as you state.  Truth is i originally calculated this to be a 20 km diameter mirror, but just scaled it down linear to suit the size of lifter you guys are proposing.  You might be correct that that had a more serious effect than i realized.

Very worst case is it may be necessary to force the counterweight to ride behind the mirror and use an additional set of controlling tethers to the field of the mirror to enable a slight parabloic shape.  Would be a complex steering algorithm then, and I really don't like the possibility of one of these things going concave.

I'll re-calc for 2.75 km and get back with numbers.
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