A Non-technical Explanation of the SE
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Bob Munck
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« on: May 21, 2005, 08:17:50 PM »

I recently had occasion to construct a short, non-technical description of the SE. I'm fairly happy with the result, but think it could use some critical discussion and improvement.  Here's what I wrote:

Quote
About a decade ago, we discovered several new forms of carbon molecules, a spherical shape called buckyballs and a long, thin form called carbon nanotubes (CNT). Carbon nanotubes are strong the way diamonds are hard (and for much the same reason). In fact, they're so strong that there's a possibility that they could be used to build an amazing thing called a space elevator, a cable anchored on the Equator and stretching so far into space (60,000 miles) that it's held up and taut by centrifugal force from the Earth's rotation. Truck-sized vehicles called climbers would be able to pull themselves up that cable and deliver cargo to geosynchronous orbit for one thousand times less than the current cost using rockets.

We don't know yet if we can make a CNT cable strong enough;  theory says that the individual molecules are about five times as strong as we need, but we don't know if we can make them into a cable that retains enough of that strength. The way to create a cable might never be found, or it might be discovered tomorrow.

If we do find it, a fairly detailed engineering study done with NASA funding shows that we'll be able to build an SE in about five years for about $6 billion. (8% of NASA’s budget for that period; Bill Gates or Paul Allen could do it by writing a check.) With space elevators in place (you need more than one because there are a number of dangers that could sever them; the second one would cost $2B), a substantial manned mission to Mars could be mounted for less than a billion dollars. Universities could send unmanned probes to Jupiter. Boy Scout troupes could send up satellites the size of the original Sputnik. Electricity beamed down from solar power satellites could make the the "hydrogen economy" a viable replacement for fossil fuels. In the longer term, millions of people could migrate to lunar colonies or space habitats at places like the Lagrange points.
What would you add, delete, or say differently?  This is about 335 words, and I'd like to make it a bit shorter if at all possible; certainly not too much longer.
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tjnugent
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« Reply #1 on: May 21, 2005, 08:32:16 PM »

Quote from: Bob Munck
About a decade ago, we discovered several new forms of carbon molecules, a spherical shape called buckyballs and a long, thin form called carbon nanotubes (CNT).
"A new form of carbon molecule, long hollow cylinders called carbon nanotubes, were discovered in 1991."
Quote from: Bob Munck
In fact, they're so strong
Insert here: "(for example, a small car could be suspended by a single thread less than 0.5mm, or 1/60 inch, in diameter)"
Quote from: Bob Munck
stretching so far into space (60,000 miles)
62,000 miles
Quote from: Bob Munck
Truck-sized vehicles called climbers
"Lifters" Wink
Quote from: Bob Munck
deliver cargo to geosynchronous orbit for one thousand times less than the current cost using rockets.
Where do you get that number?  I've seen cost estimates in the $100/lb to $400/lb, but that's "only" 100 times cheaper than current costs, not 1,000 times cheaper (but hey, what's an order of magnitude among friends?  :grin: )
Quote from: Bob Munck
If we do find it, a fairly detailed engineering study done with NASA funding shows that we'll be able to build an SE in about five years for about $6 billion.
I really dislike this number.  First, that's only the technical cost, and I thought sometimes Brad called it somewhere closer to $10B.  Second, that does not include legal costs or R&D costs.  So I think the $6-10B number is misleading.  I don't want the SE community to look like the space station community (or almost any other segment of the space industry), and have the final cost wind up being way way higher.

Overall, nice job.  On the spur of the moment, I might spend different amounts of text on the different subjects, but I can't complain about the job you've done.
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Tom Nugent
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« Reply #2 on: May 22, 2005, 01:34:42 PM »

Nice article.  Gotta plug mining the moon; sending mining equipment there should be one of the SE killer apps.  Underneath some of the craters there are large gold, platinum, and palladium deposits.  Space hotels and climber "couples retreats" pre Van Allen belts, are visible applications, depending on the target audience.  To really nitpik, I don't think people could safely spend years or decades at a time on a moon base as gravity is too little.
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Bob Munck
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« Reply #3 on: May 22, 2005, 09:07:14 PM »

Quote from: tjnugent
"A new form of carbon molecule, long hollow cylinders called carbon nanotubes, were discovered in 1991."
Yeah, ok.  I thought "buckyballs" might ring a bell in their memory, but probably not.

Quote
Insert here: "(for example, a small car could be suspended by a single thread less than 0.5mm, or 1/60 inch, in diameter)"
62,000 miles
OK, but either metric or english units, depending on the audience, but not both.  62K miles comes from converting 100K km, and that latter value is just the arbitrary choice of a round number.  (The counterweight can be anywhere out to 150K km, where it's no longer needed.) I chose a different arbitrary value which was a nice round number in miles.

Delete "small" before "car;"   why make it more complicated? Rather than "1/60 inch," I'd like to find some common item -- sewing thread, 20-pound-test fishing line?

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"Lifters" instead of "climbers."
Nah, not equivalently evocative.

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Wink Where do you get that number?  I've seen cost estimates in the $100/lb to $400/lb,
In THE BOOK, Eric plods painfully through a bunch of long-term cost reductions, eventually gets below $10/kg.

Quote
I really dislike this number. ($6B construction costs)
Yeah, but it has the advantage of coming out to a single-digit-percentage of the total NASA budget, making it more impressive.  Let's face it, there's a huge unknown in all these figures, the cost of manufacturing the ribbon.  What if the way that we discover to do it has about the same cost as making nylon?

Quote from: cdnprodigy
Gotta plug mining the moon;
Can't, because I don't believe in it.

As Monte pointed out to me in an email, I've violated the basic three-step law of exposition:  tell 'em what you're gonna tell 'em; tell 'em; tell 'em what you've told 'em.  In other words, I've buried the lede.

I'm grateful for all the comments, but I have to tell you that I have a great horror of the dangers of word-smithing.  I've spent too much time in  meetings with people arguing about word choice and punctuation of a corporate philosophy sound bite.  I'll give careful consideration to your suggestions and come up with my own next version, and you all can do the same.  Maybe we can find somewhere  on the web to post all the versions, for everyone to use as a resource.
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Bob Munck
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« Reply #4 on: July 21, 2005, 07:53:22 AM »

I used the non-technical description in a comment to The Oil Drum , a blog discussing the possibility and consequences of Peak Oil.

Quote
I've only been reading TOD for a short time, but there's one possible energy source that I haven't seen mentioned.

Solar-Power Satellites

Wait before you scoff! I know, they were a big deal in the 70's until further analysis and the economic realities of our space program showed they couldn't compete with terrestrial PV.  That's still true, but there's a looming possibility that could change the economics and make them both more probable and nearer term than nuclear fusion.

A new form of carbon molecule, long hollow cylinders called carbon nanotubes (CNT), was discovered in 1991. Carbon nanotubes are strong the way diamonds are hard (and for much the same reason). In fact, they're so strong that there's a possibility that they could be used to build an amazing thing called a Space Elevator (SE), a cable anchored on the Equator and stretching so far into space (100,000 km) that it's held up and taut by centrifugal force from the Earth's rotation. Truck-sized vehicles called climbers would be able to pull themselves up that cable and deliver cargo to geosynchronous orbit for at least 100 and possibly 1000 times less than the current cost using rockets.

We don't know yet if we can make a CNT cable strong enough; theory says that the individual molecules are about five times as strong as we need, but we don't know if we can make them into a cable that retains enough of that strength. The way to create a cable might never be found, or it might be discovered tomorrow.

If we do find it, a fairly detailed engineering study done with NASA funding shows that we'll be able to build an SE in about five years for about $6-10 billion. (8% of NASA’s budget for that period; Bill Gates or Paul Allen could do it by writing a check.) With space elevators in place (you need more than one because there are a number of dangers that could sever them; the second one would cost $2-4B), a substantial manned mission to Mars could be mounted for less than a billion dollars. Universities could send unmanned probes to Jupiter. Boy Scout troupes could send up satellites the size of the original Sputnik.

More important for this forum,  SEs would bring down the cost of SPS; the original proposals were dominated by the cost of getting all that mass into space.  It's not outside the realm of possibility that we could have the first SE up in ten years, and the first SPS beaming down gigawatts five years after that.

Or maybe never.  The big unknown is our ability to make CNT cables strong and light enough.  (We need a strength of at least 63 gigapascals at a weight of 1330 kg/m³).  A graduate student could discover how to do that tomorrow, or a billion-dollar research program could take two decades and fail.  I'd take bets at 2:1 that we'll succeed within ten years, but maybe not at 3:1.

Another possibility with the SE: there's a lot of hydrogen up there, most of it not combined with other elements like oxygen.  An SE in the shape of a tube might make it possible to pipe H2 down to Earth. This H2 would be an energy source, not just a transport mechanism, plus we could probably recover a fair amount of the kinetic energy of that gas falling 36,000 km.

Pointers:
http://www.mill-creek-systems.com/HighLift/intro.html
http://www.liftport.com/files/521Edwards.pdf (2.7MB)
http://liftwatch.org
http://liftwatch.org/tiki-directory_redirect.php?siteId=26
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« Reply #5 on: July 21, 2005, 02:29:11 PM »

Quote from: Bob Munck
Another possibility with the SE: there's a lot of hydrogen up there, most of it not combined with other elements like oxygen. An SE in the shape of a tube might make it possible to pipe H2 down to Earth. This H2 would be an energy source, not just a transport mechanism, plus we could probably recover a fair amount of the kinetic energy of that gas falling 36,000 km.
Hydrogen? What hydrogen? I thought space was empty...

Even if you can somehow gather enough hydrogen, how are you going to make it come down against atmospheric pressure?

I have not seen this one discussed in any detail here, or anywhere. The physics does not seem to make sense. Perhaps a reference would be in order. The rest of the article is very nice.

Andreas
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Bob Munck
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« Reply #6 on: July 21, 2005, 07:05:01 PM »

Quote from: windemut
Hydrogen? What hydrogen?
The solar wind is largely hydrogen, but a tad thin.  It might be a better bet to dip it out of Jupiter's atmosphere (90% hydrogen) and sling it back to Earth using big CNT balloons and a rotating tether in Jupiter orbit.

Quote
how are you going to make it come down against atmospheric pressure?
I don't know what you mean by "against atmospheric pressure."  Just start putting H2 into the top of the tube, at GEO, and pretty soon you have a column of it all the way down.  That's going to weigh a whole lot more than the 30 km of the column at the bottom that's full of air, so it'll push the air out the bottom and continue to fall.  Now you've got hydrogen gas coming out the bottom of the SE as fast as you can put it in at the top.

I'm not sure this is even possible.  The gas, having fallen 36,000 km from GEO, is going to be traveling at about 10 km/sec when it gets to the bottom.  That might be so fast and violent that the SE and anchor would just get blown to bits.  Maybe some kind of baffles in the tube at intervals?   Also, I'm not sure what the Coriolis effect would do.

I hope you're not confused by the fact that hydrogen is lighter than air at the same pressure.  This hydrogen would be at higher pressure than the air it's displacing, maybe much higher, and therefore heavier than the air.
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windemut
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« Reply #7 on: July 22, 2005, 04:17:17 PM »

Quote from: Bob Munck
The solar wind is largely hydrogen, but a tad thin. It might be a better bet to dip it out of Jupiter's atmosphere (90% hydrogen) and sling it back to Earth using big CNT balloons and a rotating tether in Jupiter orbit.
Neither of these seem really feasible, much less economical. The solar wind is indeed a tad thin. Ultra-high vacuum type of thin. To "dip it out of Jupiter", you need far more difficult space infrastructure than the SE itself. The transport from Jupiter, whether liquid or pressurized, will not exactly be a picnic, either. It will make oil supertankers look like reed rafts. All this for a substance that is actually fairly cheap right here on Earth.

Quote from: Bob Munck
I don't know what you mean by "against atmospheric pressure." Just start putting H2 into the top of the tube, at GEO, and pretty soon you have a column of it all the way down. That's going to weigh a whole lot more than the 30 km of the column at the bottom that's full of air, so it'll push the air out the bottom and continue to fall. Now you've got hydrogen gas coming out the bottom of the SE as fast as you can put it in at the top.

I'm not sure this is even possible. The gas, having fallen 36,000 km from GEO, is going to be traveling at about 10 km/sec when it gets to the bottom. That might be so fast and violent that the SE and anchor would just get blown to bits. Maybe some kind of baffles in the tube at intervals? Also, I'm not sure what the Coriolis effect would do.

I hope you're not confused by the fact that hydrogen is lighter than air at the same pressure. This hydrogen would be at higher pressure than the air it's displacing, maybe much higher, and therefore heavier than the air.
I think what you are missing here is that hydrogen is a gas, and it does not like to be compressed. Earth's atmosphere is an equilibrium between gas pressure and gravity. Hydrogen is lighter than the other gasses, that is why it is not found on Earth. It tends to escape into space. If you want to bring it back, you have to pump it.

Another way of seeing this is by noting that the thermal velocity of hydrogen molecules at room temperature is comparable to Earth escape velocity. A significant fraction of the molecules therefore will be fast enough to simply leave and join the solar wind. After sufficient time, they all will. See for example problem 4 in this physics problem set:

http://ircamera.as.arizona.edu/astr_250/ProblemSets/ps_2solv.htm

Finally, as a purely logical argument, if hydrogen would fall to Earth inside the SE, why not outside? All that hydrogen would already be here, then, would it not?

Sorry, I just don't buy the hydrogen thing...

Andreas
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Bob Munck
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« Reply #8 on: July 24, 2005, 02:31:48 PM »

Quote from: windemut
Hydrogen is lighter than the other gasses, that is why it is not found on Earth. It tends to escape into space. If you want to bring it back, you have to pump it.

Another way of seeing this is by noting that the thermal velocity of hydrogen molecules at room temperature is comparable to Earth escape velocity. A significant fraction of the molecules therefore will be fast enough to simply leave and join the solar wind.
Ah, but those two go together.  The hydrogen molecules, being lighter than the others in the atmosphere, are buoyed up to the top of the atmosphere.  There they're heated by sunlight and start slamming into each other with increased velocity.  Eventually some of those at the very top will manage to take off in a direction where they don't hit any of the others, and will sail off into space.  For a given molecule at the very top, there's a 50% chance that it'll go in a direction away from the other molecules, and will therefore escape.

The hydrogen molecules in the tube won't do that.  They'll hit each other or the sides of the tube.  The ones going up and the ones going down will just hit other hydrogen  molecules, with no net upward or downward force for the gas (Second Law).  However, there is a net downward force, gravity.  All of the molecules are effected by it so, on average, they'll start to fall.

Quote
Finally, as a purely logical argument, if hydrogen would fall to Earth inside the SE, why not outside? All that hydrogen would already be here, then, would it not?
Consider a normal, run-of-the-mill hydrogen atom sitting around somewhere in space near the Earth but well above the atmosphere.  It starts to fall toward Earth but just then gets hit by a particularly energetic photon and takes off at higher than escape velocity.  Most of the directions that it can go won't hit the Earth.  Therefore, like its terrestrial cousin that bubbled up from a peat bog and was buoyed to the top of the atmosphere, it leaves the vicinity of Earth.

In the SE tube, there are no energetic photons, but we'll leave that aside because, as you said, normal thermal motion is pretty fast.  However, there's no place to go but down.

Quote
Neither of these seem really feasible, ... To "dip it out of Jupiter", you need far more difficult space infrastructure than the SE itself. The transport from Jupiter, whether liquid or pressurized, will not exactly be a picnic, either. It will make oil supertankers look like reed rafts.
Well, we can throw things to Jupiter just by taking them out to the end of an SE and letting go.  The dipper might be something as simple as a CNT rotovator in low Jupiter orbit.  A mechanism at each tip fills up CNT balloons as it dips into the atmosphere and then throws them toward the Earth when it comes around to the top of the circle. At the middle of the tether would be a solar-powered motor that used Jupiter's immense magnetic field to restore orbital momentum lost by the dipping and the throwing.  All we'd have to do is throw it empty balloons and catch them when they come back full.  (This probably won't get going for a few years after the first SE goes up.)

Quote
All this for a substance that is actually fairly cheap right here on Earth.
Not as an energy source, it's not.  H2 is cheap because it can be produced by using energy to break it out of molecules like water and hydrocarbons.  Water, hydrocarbons, and energy are cheap, therefore H2 is cheap.  The latter two of those, actually pretty much the same commodity, are soon going to cease to be cheap.  Hydrogen coming down the SE tube is an energy source, not just a transport mechanism.

Look, I'll freely admit that the immediate cause of my being frog-marched out of the Physics Department at Brown was a particularly nasty junior-year course on thermodynamics. I don't claim to be complete sure about what I'm talking about.  However, I am pretty sure that there's a difference between hydrogen inside a tube and not inside a tube.
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« Reply #9 on: July 25, 2005, 06:51:24 AM »

Quote from: Bob Munck
However, I am pretty sure that there's a difference between hydrogen inside a tube and not inside a tube.

I am afraid there is not. Both inside and outside ae tube the gas equation
is valid, and the combination of gas equation plus gravity determines the density of any atmosphere made of any gas. It's weight vs. pressure, and it boils down to an exponential pressure gradient. The equilibrium pressure at Earth's surface is negligible for hydrogen.

You keep assuming that there is more hydrogen in the tube than in the surrounding space. This can only be true if the hydrogen is pumped there, against the pressure differential. There has to be a top to the tube somewhere, and that is where all the gas will leak out until the equilibrium pressure is reached. That equilibrium requires that the pressure insiode the tube is the same as outside. You can pump it down, but that will require energy.

I am also fairly sure that the energy required to lift hydrogen out from Jupiters gravity is a multiple of that which could possibly be recovered by combining it with oxygen on Earth.

Andreas
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« Reply #10 on: July 25, 2005, 09:01:30 AM »

Quote from: Bob Munck
Not as an energy source, it's not. H2 is cheap because it can be produced by using energy to break it out of molecules like water and hydrocarbons. Water, hydrocarbons, and energy are cheap, therefore H2 is cheap. The latter two of those, actually pretty much the same commodity, are soon going to cease to be cheap. Hydrogen coming down the SE tube is an energy source, not just a transport mechanism.
Look, let's face it, energy itself is quite plentiful on Earth. There is all this sun shining down on us (An area of the size of medium sized lake receives enough to cover all the worlds needs), there is nuclear (a mere fivefold or so increase in the number of reactors without any new technology will cover US electrical needs), there are all kinds of plentiful hydrocarbons that are just a little bit more expensive to get at than oil. Just because oil happens to be the cheapest and easiest at this time doesn't mean that we will be done for once it runs out. We'll just take another step up the ladder. Compared to this one step up the ladder, SPSs are somewhere in the stratosphere, and hydrogen from Jupiter, well, soemwhere beyond Jupiter.

Andreas
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Bob Munck
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« Reply #11 on: July 25, 2005, 11:41:49 AM »

Quote from: windemut
You keep assuming that there is more hydrogen in the tube than in the surrounding space.
Well, yeah. The tube contains hydrogen brought back from Jupiter;  it's surrounded by the vacuum of space.  That would be more, wouldn't it?
Quote
This can only be true if the hydrogen is pumped there, against the pressure differential.
What pressure differential?  Before we put hydrogen into it, the tube is empty.  When we pump hydrogen from the Jupiter balloon into the valve at GEO, it expands downward (into the vacuum inside the tube) until it starts being pulled downward by gravity.  Then it falls all the way to the surface.
Quote
 There has to be a top to the tube somewhere, and that is where all the gas will leak out until the equilibrium pressure is reached.
I didn't think it necessary to mention that we'd close up the top of the tube, right above the valve at GEO.  In fact, above that point it doesn't have to be a gas-tight tube any more.
Quote
That equilibrium requires that the pressure insiode the tube is the same as outside. You can pump it down, but that will require energy.
Not much. We just have to move it out of the balloon and down the tube a little bit until it starts being pulled further down by gravity.  Note that there's a great deal of potential energy here, the mass of all that hydrogen sitting 35,000 km up in Earth's gravitational field.
Quote
I am also fairly sure that the energy required to lift hydrogen out from Jupiters gravity is a multiple of that which could possibly be recovered by combining it with oxygen on Earth.
Well, sure, and the fusion energy to produce all that light in the Sun is much greater than we get back from a photovoltaic at the Earth's surface. I'm suggesting using solar energy at Jupiter to spin the rotovator and throw balloons out of Jupiter's gravity.  If you're saying we'd be better off gathering solar energy at Earth and beaming it down, maybe.  But power beaming isn't all that efficient; who knows which is cheaper?
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« Reply #12 on: July 25, 2005, 08:13:16 PM »

Quote from: windemut
Look, let's face it, energy itself is quite plentiful on Earth. There is all this sun shining down on us ... nuclear ... hydrocarbons that are just a little bit more expensive to get at than oil...
I take it you haven't read The Long Emergency.  Sure, there's a lot of energy, but none of it even approaches being as usable as oil.  Our problems would be solved by the invention of a cheap, light, high-capacity battery, but that's not likely.  Cold fusion would be good, too.
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« Reply #13 on: July 26, 2005, 04:44:58 PM »

I don't think solar energy beyond a Mars orbit or so, is powerful enough to be useful to the rotovators as described.  Jupiter is also a big gravity well.  Does anyone have a very rough estimate how much power a Jovian rotavator would require to function and lift payloads out of that massive gravity well?
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